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Scenario Planning: Embracing Uncertainty to Reveal Superior Opportunities

Scenario Planning: Embracing Uncertainty to Reveal Superior Opportunities
Event on 2017-10-18 09:00:00
We live in a world of uncertainty. Yet most organizations plan as if the world were predictable, developing single-point forecasts, budgets, and initiatives that will succeed as long as the external environment cooperates. This session will introduce an outside-in view of doing planning that actually embraces external uncertainties as a source of superior opportunities and presents a step-by-step methodology for crafting an adaptive strategy under conditions of uncertainty After examining the risks of overconfidence, confirmation bias, and conventional wisdom. Dr. Austin introduces a scenario building technique to prioritize and connect industry uncertainties to break out of industry conventional wisdom. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Understand the challenge of overconfidence and confirmation bias when planning for the future given our tendency towards single-point forecasting. Use uncertainties and forecasting keys as a source for improved strategic decision making Build possible future scenarios based on primary uncertainties that will have the greatest impact on the future. Determine next steps in creating a long-term strategy that takes into account key industry uncertainties DISCUSSION TOPICS Managing Uncertainty and Improving Forecasting Overconfidence and Confirmation Bias Knowing what we don’t know: Seeing uncertainties Keys to becoming a better forecaster Visualizing Alternative Future Scenarios Brainstorming external forces via the PEST+ framework Constructing a futures matrix and building scenarios Charting perceived probabilities Planning for Uncertain Futures Building flexible decisions Assessing robust strategy Stress testing initiatives Combining focus with flexibility TARGET AUDIENCE Senior and executive level leaders.  SPEAKER BIO John Austin, PhD works at the intersection of research and practice as the President of Three Translation Leadership. Prior to that, Dr. Austin was a Principal at Decision Strategies International and a management professor at Penn State University and The University of Washington. He continues to teach executives for The Wharton School and The University of North Carolina. John has worked with numerous Global Fortune 500 companies as an executive development resource and is a frequent speaker at association conferences. Dr. Austin has a B.A. in economics from The Johns Hopkins University and a Ph.D. in management from Boston College. He is a thought leader in the areas of organizational change implementation, team leadership, and strategic decision-making. His research on knowledge-based decision making teams is widely cited in the academic literature, as is his work on the strategic actions of internal change agents. Dr. Austin’s work on knowledge transfer in managerial teams has been used to develop executive teams around the world. Dr. Austin’s research has been published in leading management and applied psychology journals including Journal of Applied Behavioral Science, Journal of Applied Psychology, and Organization Science as well as practice-oriented publications including HR Magazine and The OD Practitioner. He is the author of Leading Effective Change: A Primer for the HR Professional published as part of the SHRM Foundation’s Effective Practice Guidelines Series (2015). Dr. Austin’s new book, Unquestioned Brilliance: Navigating a Fundamental Leadership Trap, was published in fall 2015. EVENT FAQs Arrival TimePlease plan to arrive by 8:30 am to relax and enjoy coffee, juice, English muffins, yogurt, fresh fruit and the peaceful club grounds before we begin. What does the registration fee include? The registration fee includes refreshments throughout the day, plated luncheon and all session materials. Transfer and cancellation policy You may transfer your registration to a future seminar, send someone to take your place or cancel without penalty at any time up to 72 hours prior to your seminar. If you provide us less than 72 hours notice, or fail to attend, you will be liable for the entire program fee.

at Charlotte Country Club
Charlotte Country Club 2465 Mecklenburg Avenue
Charlotte, United States

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